
Why Financials Aren’t Enough: Trust Drives 70–90% of Deals to Collapse
Industry research consistently reveals a harsh truth: 70–90% of M&A deals fail to meet expectations. With figures like that, focusing purely on EBITDA multiples or growth curves won’t save your exit.
The Trust Factor: A Key Predictor of Deal Success
A study of Israeli high-tech startups found that trust from acquired‑firm managers strongly correlates with successful post‑deal performance. Another mixed-method analysis emphasizes that openness and transparency during due diligence and negotiations are essential.
Buyers who feel misled rarely proceed.
The Human Tension in Numbers-Focused Deals
Numbers open the door, but character closes the deal. Move goalposts, hide skeletons, or play hard to get, and even savvy investors will walk. One buyer confided:
“I loved the business. But I couldn’t trust the founder. So we walked.”
It’s not fear of valuation; it’s fear of how you’ll show up under pressure.
How Mistrust Kills Deals
- Transparency breakdowns during due diligence spike buyer skepticism.
- Cultural distrust, including a lack of openness, impeded integration success across hundreds of M&A case surveys.
- Hidden red flags often surface late, derailing trust and damaging valuations.
The Real Cost of Trust Gaps
- Lost Deals: The Majority of M&A negotiations stall or unravel because of trust issues, not just valuations.
- Founder Retention Drops: Over 50% of founders leave before the two‑year post‑acquisition mark, often due to misaligned expectations and trust breakdowns.
What Founders Can Do: Transparency First
- Be proactive with skeletons. Surface them early before buyers discover them.
- Show consistent communication. Return calls, answer questions fully, on time.
- Avoid shifting goalposts. Keep your stated expectations consistent throughout.
Final Thoughts
At Pinnacle Wealth Advisory, we’ve seen founders lose eight-figure exits not because of weak P&Ls, but because their founder behavior caused smart money to pull out.
Strong numbers open the door. Trust builds the bridge to close.
Ask yourself: Are you protecting value… or scaring off the buyers who would actually pay for it?