Feeling uncertain about the economy? That might be the wrong metric.

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4 Key Signals Smart Investors Are Watching Right Now (Not Just the News) – 2025 Edition

By Doug Greenberg, CIMA®

President, Pinnacle Wealth Advisory (PNWA)

Is the economy headed for a slowdown—or are we just being influenced by fear?

With consumer sentiment sliding and headlines warning of recession, it’s easy to assume the worst. But as seasoned investors know, feeling nervous doesn’t always match reality. That’s why at Pinnacle Wealth Advisory, we believe it’s essential to go beyond emotion and look at what the data is telling us.

In this blog, Doug Greenberg, Certified Investment Management Analyst (CIMA) and President of PNWA, unpacks critical economic signals—from the Weekly Economic Index to the equal-weighted S&P 500—and reveals what they show about the current state of the economy. You’ll walk away with a clearer understanding of the market’s real story, and how to use it to make smarter investment decisions.

What Is the Data Saying? The Weekly Economic Index Holds the Key

Let’s start with one of the most under-the-radar but powerful tools available: the Weekly Economic Index (WEI). Unlike lagging indicators like quarterly GDP or backward-looking employment reports, the WEI is built for real-time decision-making. It pulls together a mix of high-frequency data—think jobless claims, fuel consumption, steel production, and tax withholdings. This makes it a strong pulse-check on actual economic activity.

Despite rising pessimism in business and consumer surveys, the WEI has remained consistently above 2% for the past six months. That means the economy is still growing, even as the narrative in the news might make it feel like we’re teetering on the edge.

📌 Key Takeaway: Just because people feel uncertain doesn’t mean the economy is shrinking. As investors, it’s important to distinguish between emotional sentiment and factual momentum.

Consumer Confidence Is Falling—Should Investors Be Worried?

Yes, we should be watching this—but let’s keep it in context.

Consumer confidence is down nearly 17 points over the last three months, approaching the historical danger zone that has preceded past recessions. That matters because consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

But here’s the nuance: consumer confidence is considered soft data. It tells us how people feel, not what they’re actually doing—yet. Historically, changes in consumer behavior tend to follow these drops, not precede them.

At Pinnacle Wealth Advisory, we see this as an early warning light—not a red alert. It’s something to monitor closely, especially in tandem with job market trends and fiscal policy shifts. But again, this needs to be balanced with hard data like the WEI.

📌 Key Takeaway: Confidence is low, but spending and production data haven’t confirmed a recession is imminent. Stay cautious, not panicked.

The Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Offers a Better Lens for Valuations

One of the most important tools for investors to understand right now isn’t a new trend—it’s a different perspective: the equal-weighted S&P 500.

Most people are familiar with the cap-weighted version, where mega-cap tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft have an outsized influence. But when every company is given equal weight, you get a clearer picture of how the average stock is doing—and the story is very different.

Here’s what we’re seeing:

The equal-weighted S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is sitting right at its 10-year average.
This suggests that valuations are not stretched across the board.
It also implies that the broader market may be fairly valued, with real opportunities outside of the headline-driving tech giants.

📌 Key Takeaway: The average investor might be more diversified—and less at risk—by not overconcentrating in mega-cap names. There’s value to be found across the board.

Concentration Risk in the Cap-Weighted Index Is Growing

This brings us to one of the biggest hidden risks for today’s investors: concentration.

When you rely solely on the traditional S&P 500, your portfolio becomes increasingly skewed toward a small group of very expensive, high-growth stocks. That’s fine when they’re outperforming—but dangerous if sentiment shifts, earnings disappoint, or regulation tightens.

As wealth advisors who take a long-term view, we encourage clients to think about diversification in a more robust way. That means looking beyond just asset classes—it means diversifying within equities too. And the equal-weighted S&P 500 is one of the clearest indicators of whether the rest of the market is being overlooked.

📌 Key Takeaway: Real diversification means more than owning “the S&P 500.” Investors who fail to adjust may be more exposed than they realize.

What Does This Mean for Your Financial Plan?

At Pinnacle Wealth Advisory, we believe data-driven insights should serve a larger purpose: helping you make better long-term decisions.

Whether you’re running a family office or refining your retirement strategy, you need more than headlines—you need actionable clarity. Right now, that means:

Don’t overreact to short-term noise. Just because consumer surveys are down doesn’t mean the economy is falling apart.
Use alternative indicators. Tools like the WEI give us a real-time, accurate view of what’s actually happening.
Review your allocations. Ensure you’re not overexposed to just a few high-growth names. Broader market exposure could offer better risk-adjusted returns.
Stick to your plan. If your financial plan was built with resilience and goals in mind, don’t let short-term sentiment throw you off course.

📌 Key Takeaway: Long-term investors benefit from having a structured, personalized plan—and sticking to it when markets get noisy.

Final Thoughts from Doug Greenberg

It’s easy to get caught up in fear—especially when headlines are loud and confidence is low. But what we’ve seen time and time again is that real data tells a clearer story.

That’s why we take a data-first, human-centered approach here at Pinnacle Wealth Advisory. Our role as wealth advisors is to help clients see through the noise and take thoughtful action—without overreacting to emotion or speculation.

The bottom line? The economy may not be as fragile as it feels. And as an investor, the right plan—with the right perspective—can help you weather uncertainty and pursue long-term growth with clarity and confidence.

🤝 What’s Your Take?

Have questions about how today’s trends affect your portfolio? Want help interpreting what these signals mean for your financial future?

Doug Greenberg

President, Pinnacle Wealth Advisory

doug@pnwadvisory.com