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The Week Ahead Thumbnail

The Week Ahead

Investors may be looking for some relief after a bumpy January, but another busy week of data awaits. Three central bank meetings are on the calendar along with the monthly U.S. jobs report. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates for the second time to 0.5%, which may trigger a start to shrinking the balance sheet. The ECB is not anticipated to make any new policy changes with economic growth and wage inflation lagging the U.S. Now that the market is pricing in at least 4 rate hikes and the dollar has had its not-surprising reaction (see chart below), Friday’s U.S. NFP report could give the greenback further momentum. The wages component could produce additional volatility given investors’ hypersensitivity to inflationary data. The JOLTS job openings and ADP private payrolls add color to the labor market conversation. This week also brings U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs along with Chicago PMI. A handful of key Q4 earnings announcements remain, notably Amazon, Advanced Micro Devices, and General Motors. Internationally, OPEC meets mid-week and is expected to stay with gradual production buildups, likely supportive for oil’s current uptrend.